How much of today's oil prices are based off of speculation rather than true value?

When the price of oil dropped big in fall of '06 through early '07 the media painted the drive up to the previous highs as pure speculation. Is the same in practice in effect now or is this more or less the ';true'; value of oil today?How much of today's oil prices are based off of speculation rather than true value?
1/6 speculation,


2/6 margins in distribution channels,


1/6 local resellers profits





Just guess.








Edit:


';Mogollon Dude'; might be right - I don't know.How much of today's oil prices are based off of speculation rather than true value?
I've learned it is at least 60% .